As Turkey approaches its local elections next Sunday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is determined to reclaim Istanbul, emboldened by his party’s robust performance in the previous year’s general elections.
The city, which stands as Turkey’s commercial hub, was captured by the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP) in the landmark 2019 elections, marking the first time it slipped from Erdogan’s grasp since his tenure as mayor in the 1990s.
That election also witnessed the CHP taking over Ankara and retaining Izmir, disrupting Erdogan’s longstanding aura of electoral invulnerability.
Erdogan has appointed Murat Kurum, his ex-environment minister, as the mayoral candidate for Istanbul in the elections scheduled for March 31, aiming to overturn the significant loss he suffered when CHP’s Ekrem Imamoglu won the mayoral seat.
Despite facing an economic downturn and the aftermath of a devastating earthquake that resulted in over 53,000 fatalities, Erdogan managed to secure a victory in the previous year’s challenging presidential race.
His focus now returns to Istanbul, the city of his upbringing and political inception, where he first became mayor in 1994.
Imamoglu, who previously defeated an Erdogan-endorsed candidate in the contentious 2019 elections, solidified his status as a key opposition figure by winning a subsequent re-run by a substantial margin.
Looking ahead, Imamoglu, at 52, is considered the opposition’s prime contender to challenge Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) for the presidency in 2028.
However, the opposition’s unity was weakened by last year’s unsatisfactory general election results, leading the pro-Kurdish Democracy and Progress (DEVA) Party to field its own candidates in the impending local elections, potentially diluting the opposition’s strength.
In contrast to 2019, when Imamoglu garnered support from a diverse political coalition, the current lack of solidarity could diminish his support base.
While Erdogan spearheads the AKP’s campaign with extensive television coverage, opposition candidates have turned to social media due to limited broadcast exposure.
The government’s inability to curb the staggering 67% inflation rate may impede Kurum’s prospects.
Erdogan, rallying his base in Istanbul, proclaimed, “On March 31, we will inaugurate a new chapter. We are committed to regaining Istanbul.”
Polls indicate a tight race ahead.
